Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir’s visit to Southern Sudan and the warm reception from his host, Salva Kiir Mayardit, just a few days before the start of the referendum vote on independence is good news, not only for the people of Sudan but for the entire region.
Bashir promised to be the first to congratulate and welcome independence for Southern Sudan and if he remains true to his word, it is an indication that the referendum will be smooth and that the transition period will not be as problematic as initially feared.
In doing so, Bashir is responding positively to overtures and, accepting that independence is inevitable, turning everything to his political advantage. He is, therefore, busy remaking his image, from that of a recalcitrant strongman of Khartoum to a possible a deliverer of independence for the South.
Bashir’s new image would vindicate those in the South who had bet on him to deliver because he has an interest in doing so. They include General Joseph Lagu, who actually campaigned for Bashir in the April 2010 election on the grounds that Bashir knows the CPA and therefore could deliver on Northern commitments.
A new person, Lagu argued, might want to start from scratch and even ignore the CPA because it would not have been his “Agreement.” Because the South would like Bashir to deliver on his CPA commitment, he was given a good reception as the head state and government in Sudan as currently constituted.
Southern Sudan is not the only place that would like Bashir to deliver on his commitment. The neighbours are also anxious.
Kenya received a lot of flak for going out of its way in August 2010 to invite Bashir to the ceremony of promulgating Kenya's new constitution, despite an outstanding International Criminal Court arrest warrant against the Sudanese leader. Kenya intimated it wanted to make him feel good and remain true to the CPA. Its reasons included security concerns because a breach of peace in Southern Sudan would destabilise the region just when it appears to be recovering. It would also disrupt implementation of elaborate plans that include the projected Lamu-Juba corridor which is both a security and an economic stimulant for South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
The anticipation
Extra-continental powers are also interested in a peaceful referendum. Many have opened huge consulates in Juba in anticipation of independence and the ensuing economic opportunities. None wants to be left out of a potentially good thing and they would not want to see their effort wasted through adamant futility on the part of some people in Khartoum.
The extra-continental powers, therefore, have been making their position clear. The United States, which tends to be noisy about its desires, has been busy making all sorts of promises to Bashir’s government as an inducement for him to deliver on the CPA. It has sent a large delegation to South Sudan to monitor the referendum.
Other powers are less noisy but equally interested in what happens in Southern Sudan. The Chinese, whose activities in the Horn of Africa region are on the rise, have also made their position clear, although rather quietly.
Initially, China, seemingly worried about the similarities between Southern Sudan and Taiwan and Tibet, was one of those that previously supported Khartoum’s position on unity. It has since come round to facing the inevitable and started preparing for it by establishing a consulate in Juba in 2008. China, too, is sending an observer mission to South Sudan for the referendum.
China is not the only one to switch positions. It was in the same position as the Arab states who initially opposed possible separation but have now come round to accepting the inevitability of independence for Southern Sudan. In part, their position was a show of solidarity with Khartoum which claimed that Sudan was an Islamic Arab country. The fact that the claim tended to negate the existence of non-Muslims and non-Arabs in the country had not bothered them but they were forced to reassess themselves in light of the CPA recognition that the peoples of Sudan are diverse in many ways. With the inevitability of separation, and with their other interests to protect, the Arab states have edged into accepting the referendum outcome and have let Khartoum know that.
The most important of these Arab states are Egypt and Libya and both are northern neighbours to Sudan.
Initially, Egypt worried about the implication of an independent Southern Sudan on its virtual control of the Nile waters. It has since established a large consulate in Juba and is making all sorts of promises to help Southern Sudan develop. It is therefore hedging its bets and has essentially told Bashir that the game is up.
Similarly, Libya had been ambivalent and tended to fluctuate between supporting Khartoum as an Islamic Arab entity and supporting Juba’s African aspiration. The dilemma was settled in favour of being African and Libya seems to have accepted that.
Pleasant surprise
On his part, Bashir’s political calculation has probably led him to the new position of accepting the inevitable and then capitalising on it. He had to withstand considerable domestic pressure from people around him, many who do not wish to accept the reality of separation. These are mainly influential Northern “Arab” Sudanese who reportedly blame Bashir for conceding too much to the South.
Given their bellicosity and even threats to disrupt the referendum process, Bashir’s decision to overrule them came as a pleasant surprise.
In recreating his image, Bashir can be said to have the best interests of Khartoum at heart. With so many other countries trying to establish a presence in Southern Sudan, it would be in the interests of Khartoum to be among the first to be present in the new country.
Bashir is no fool and with all the forces arrayed against him, he wisely chose to make the best out of a bad situation by jumping into the driver’s seat and proclaiming his supposed happiness at the prospect of independence for Southern Sudan. It is a welcome relief.
By: Macharia Munene (African Review)
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